"Money ball"... Fair or foul?

   With the Major League Baseball regular season in the books, I took a step back and surveyed the playoff landscape. What I saw were eight teams... eight teams coming from extremely different cities, different histories, baseball cultures, and yes, different payrolls. As some of you probably know, Baseball is the only of the four major North American sports leagues (NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL) that does not have a salary cap (salary cap means the team can only spend a limited amount of money on their players). For years, people (myself being one of them) have been upset that the MLB has not taken steps to put a salary cap on the league to limit the crazy spending of the big market teams (Ya$&%ees, Red Sox, Phillies, Angles...) and help keep the small markets competitive. While I still feel like spending crazy amounts of money to "buy" championships is a lame way to do business, recently I'm not completely convinced it has as much affect on the baseball season as most would think. Let's break this down further. This season, the eight playoff teams and respective payrolls are: New York Ya$%&ees (202.7M), Texas Rangers (92.3M), Detroit Tigers (105.7M), Tampa Bay Rays (41M), Philadelphia Phillies (173M), Milwaukee Brewers (85.5M), Arizona Diamondbacks (53.6M) and St. Louis Cardinals (105.5M). New York and Philly have the number 1 and 2 payrolls in the league and the best record in their respective leagues. This would seem to support the "money ball" theory... "seem" is they key word there. You have to look all the way down the list to the 10th highest payroll where you will find Detroit (followed by St. Louis at number 11) before you find another playoff team. So only 3 of the top 10 highest paid teams in the league are playing in October. Moving down the list, we find Texas at 13th and Milwaukee at 17th giving us 3 teams in the middle third of the league. That's six teams so far... You see where I'm going with this? The last two playoff teams are Arizona at 25th and Tampa Bay at 29th (yup... 29th). That's about as even of a distribution as you could possibly hope to have (recap: 1st, 2nd, 10th, 11th, 13th, 17th, 25th, 29th). So is there any truth to the theory that the teams that spend are the teams that win? This season would seem to answer that question with a no. I want to look at one more thing before I throw in the towel on this one. Here are the last 10 World Series Champions (2001-2010) and their payroll rank for the year they won:

2001 Arizona Diamondbacks (8th)
2002 Anaheim Angels (15th)
2003 Florida Marlins (25th)
2004 Boston Red Sox (2nd)
2005 Chicago White Sox (13th)
2006 St. Louis Cardinals (11th)
2007 Boston Red Sox (2nd)
2008 Philadelphia Phillies (12th)
2009 New York Yankees (1st)
2010 San Francisco Giants (9th)

   So out of the last 10 World Series Champs, only once has the winner come from the bottom 50% of the payroll list and 5 of them came from the top 33%. I think with all the numbers in front of us, it's hard to suggest that money has nothing to do with winning. Of course, from year to year, there are bound to be surprise teams that come from the bottom of the money list and cause us all to second guess ourselves but the fact remains, teams that spend tend to win games. One other way of looking at it is winning breeds spending. Take Philly; when they won in 2008 they were 12th on the money list, in 2011 they have moved all the way to 2nd. Clearly this has a lot to do with boosted attendance. The Phillies attendance numbers rose by nearly 1 million fans per year after winning the World Series. So do small market teams need to hang on and hope for a lucky year to get the fans and owners excited and spending their cash? I don't have an answer but as a fan of one of those small market teams, I sincerely hope the ownership doesn't feel this way. Maybe the taste of winning does loosen the purse strings. Maybe it isn't such a bad thing not to have a salary cap. Maybe the Rays will win the Series this year and, once again, throw the argument into a tailspin. Whatever the case, two things will remain: Fans will argue about it and the Ya&$%ees will spend, spend, spend...

Publish Post

NFL Week 3 wrap...

   So here we are on a Tuesday and that means that all the NFL games for week 3 have been played. Let's take a quick trip around the league and hit on the real games and, of course, fantasy football. Here we go.

   NFL WEEK 3: Week 3 showcased several "are they really that good?" type of games. Patriots vs. Bills proved to be very telling of both the Pats' defense as well as the Bills' offense. Both teams look good and the Patriots are probably going to end up being better down the stretch, but we learned that counting Buffalo out just because of the division they play in would be very foolish. The Redskins played the Cowboys on MNF. What did we learn? I'm not really sure yet. I guess we learned that the Cowboys have a good rookie kicker, and that both teams are capable of hanging tough in a close game. I will probably give Dallas the edge in the rematch simply because Romo, Witten and Bryant were all nursing injuries while Austin was out completely. These guys are the core of the offense (they didn't score a touchdown with them banged up) and if they are all back healthy, the Cowboys are clearly the more talented team. I'm not counting the Skins out yet though. They showed a lot of guts playing a close game on the road and are still tied for the lead in the division. The Lions took care of the Vikings and are a surprise at 3-0. Out of the undefeated teams, I like Detroit the most. They may be in a tough division but I think we will be talking about this team fighting for a Wild Card birth later this season. The NFC WEST still sucks... enough said. What's wrong with the Falcons? A season removed from posting a 13-3 record and hosting a playoff game, the birds from the ATL already have 2 losses in 3 games. It's safe to say that even if they can right the ship and get back to winning games, they won't have 13 wins this season. With several surprise teams in the NFC and the Saints doing what the Saints do, the Falcons will need a solid record (I'm guessing 11-5) to grab one of those Wild Cards. Baltimore got back on the straight and narrow by pounding the hell out of the Rams (did I already mention that the NFC WEST suuuucks?). Steelers vs. Colts Sunday night game would have been circled on most of our calendars as a must watch... until we found out Payton was out for the year and we all decided to watch NCIS reruns. I do think that we should pay attention to the outcome. The Steelers skated by to claim a victory but looked sluggish doing it. 2 out 3 games so far this season Pittsburgh hasn't looked like Pittsburgh and their one convincing win came against the Seahawks (damn, the NFC WEST really sucks...). I don't think the Steel Curtain is falling down quite yet, but it may have a rip or two in it this year. Did somebody say Dream Team? Oh wait, they're 1-2 (whoops). I don't think I'm overreacting when I say the Eagles are on the verge of complete chaos. They traded away their backup QB and handed the keys to Vick (I'm a Vick guy but...) and he's getting beat up. I don't see any way he plays the season without missing 3 or 4 weeks at least. If that happens, the Philly fans will start doing what Philly fans do and that oh so familiar dark cloud will roll in over Lincoln Financial Field. We've seen it over and over and over again. I sincerely hope that the fans and media let the Eagles play a few more games before the saga starts. The Eagles are a GOOD team and as long as the attitude stays positive, they will get it together and contend for the division. Congrats to Cam Newton. He finally found a team that sucks worse than his. The Jags are terrible (maybe the worst in the league) and were not able to stop the Panthers from putting the ball over the goal line. I'm not sure what kind of QB Newton will grow into but one thing is sure, the coaching staff in Charlotte needs to stop using the Auburn playbook and start teaching this kid how to run a pro offense. My biggest happy surprise so far this year is the rise of the Bills. We all had a feeling the Lions would eventually come around with a roster full of young talent but I don't think nearly as many saw the guys in western New York having a shot to win half their games, let alone starting 3-0 and beating a team they had lost 15 straight games to. My WTF surprise has to be Atlanta. I hope they get it together but the jury is obviously still out.


   FANTASY: My picks could have gone better this week. While I didn't pick any complete busts, the league in general put up low numbers so I won't take all the blame here. I'll go ahead and break them down quickly (as always, my predicted score will be followed by their actual point total as scored in ESPN standard leagues).

Thomas Jones (13/3): Ok... My bad. Seriously though, with Charles done for the season, Jones is the guy you want to own on this team. The problem is, you probably shouldn't own ANYBODY on this team no matter who they are. Until the Chiefs pull their 'you know what' out of their 'you know what', then... well, you know what.

Ben Tate (16/8): Not a terrible week for Tate. He carried the ball about 5 less times than he did the first two games of the season and didn't score. The good news is that he still ran for over 80 yards. I would hang on to this guy.

Matt Hasselbeck (19/18): Told you so. Hasselbeck has been steady so far this year. He's not the type of QB (and he's not on the type of team) that can put up WOW numbers weekly and with Kenny Britt done for the year, his value is going to go down a bit, but I still think he has value as a backup/spot starter.

Chris Johnson (18/7): He's killing me (and I'm sure a lot of you) but we have to wait it out. He's going to snap out of this and, when he does, you want him to be on your roster. From the other angle, now might be the perfect time to offer that so-so trade to your buddy to see if you can hawk this guy before he starts putting up the numbers.

Jason Witten (14/6): Witten didn't have the week I predicted, but he was still a big part of the offense. The problem was that the Cowboys didn't score a touchdown and that will hamper any players' fantasy impact... Unless you happen to own their kicker (holy crap).

Chad Henne (9/14): Not the worst week for Henne but the Dolphins are floundering (fish joke) and I don't see this getting any better. The owner hates the coach and coach hates the QB. Sounds like a recipe for crappy numbers down the stretch. 


Payton Hillis (8/0): He didn't play... So that's probably why his numbers are a little low.


   Well, there you have it: Week 3 in a nutshell. Of course I'll be back later this week with my STUDS and DUDS for week 4 as well as some info on the big VT - Clemson game Saturday night. It's only week 4 and there are so many good story lines to follow. Gotta' love football season.

Losers... or Spoilers?

   Since the end of August, the Orioles have played 23 games against the Tigers, Rays, Angels, Red Sox and Y&$%ees (all playoff teams/contenders). They won 13 of them. More interesting is the fact that out of the 14 they've played (15 once tonight's game is in the books) against the 3 Wild Card contenders (Angles, Red Sox and Rays) they've won 9 times. Once the season wraps up this Wednesday, the Orioles will have had as much impact on the American League playoff picture as any team not actually playing for a spot. The final series of the season is against Boston and with the Sox clinging to playoff life like a scene straight out of Cliffhanger, the Orioles may end up being directly responsible for Bean Town boys paying golf early this year. I know the whole "spoiler" angle is cliche and, to be honest, most of us Oriole fans grew tired of hearing about it 10 years ago, but something has to be said for a team at the bottom of the standings not just packing it in when September came around. As much as we enjoy watching the Birds win, we enjoy watching the Sox lose almost as much. I want to be happy about this. I want to optimistic. I want to feel positive about where the team is at heading into the long winter... I'm not. I'm not really any of these things. Maybe it's the fact that if the O's win their last 3, they will finish the season with another completely laughable record (70-92). Maybe it's because we ended last season on such a high note after hiring Buck and watching the team surge over the last couple months and sadly it didn't translate into anything this season. Maybe it's because this story is just too old and I've seen it too many times to care anymore (the Birds have a knack for playing spoiler role). Whatever the reason, I'm angry that it's September and, yet again, my team is at the bottom. If I had to choose, I'd say it's because this season dawned with more hope and enthusiasm than I've seen in a decade and by June, it was all but gone. Casual fans probably don't get that. We should be used to losing by now... right? But those of us that truly care... The ones that emotionally invest every year... Who watch the off season clock tick slowly by while we wait for a fresh shot at seeing a winning team take the field... We are aren't used to losing and never will be. We won't accept the fact that winning is something reserved only for teams north of Baltimore. For us, losing will always be a tough pill to swallow and even keeping Boston out of the playoffs won't help it go down any easier.

Fantasy Week 3 STUDS and DUDS...

   If week 3 is as predictable as week 2 was, the points are going to rack up quicker than dollar signs on a gas pump. The main trend we are seeing is a TON of passing. Receivers have been cleaning up so far this year. At some point, you need to consider starting 3 receivers instead of the more traditional 3 running back setup. I don't think I will be going that way this week but if you have a solid number 3 WR, I would recommend giving it a shot. Some other stuff to take note of for this week... There are some key divisional match ups and that normally means a good game. The stars will come to play so if you have offensive players in one of these games, I would suggest starting them. QB's have been GOING OFF so far. If you are still sitting on a mediocre QB, it's time to start making moves (trade or waivers) to pick up a guy that's going to be in the 20 point range week in and week out. Take a look at your league's waiver wire and if there is nobody left to pickup, start going after somebody's backup. It may take a little sacrifice to get a Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton, Ryan Fitzpatrick or even Rex Grossman at this point but these guys could be a solid improvement over some of the higher drafted starters that aren't quite living up to the hype. Ok, now that you have some stuff to think about before setting those starting rosters for Sunday, here are this weeks STUDS and DUDS.

STUDS:

Thomas Jones: Ok, this is probably my biggest roll of the dice this week. Thomas Jones has been "too old" ever since the Jets decided to let him go 3 years ago. What has Jones done every year since? Only become a week in and week out factor (even last year playing behind Jamaal Charles, Jones managed to have a fantasy impact) and with Charles done for the year, I'm setting my sights on Jones to be the go-to RB for the struggling Chiefs. Just to spread a little icing on the cake, the Chargers rank 26th against the run and are giving up over 125 yards per game so far. I'm looking for Jones to get 20 or so carries between the tackles and probably any goal line opportunities (if the Chiefs can get the ball to the goal line that is...) and I expect him to take advantage of them.
PREDICTION: 13 points

Ben Tate: Tate began the year as a little known 3rd string RB and has since been tossed into the starting job. Here's a news flash: The dude can PLAY. A lot of Foster owners ran out and grabbed Tate as soon as they realized their first overall draft pick's hammy is doing about as well as Obama's approval rating. I think Tate puts up even better numbers this week and will be a solid fantasy starter as long as Foster stays hurt.
PREDICTION: 16 points

Matt Hasselbeck: The guys and girls at ESPN are projecting this guy at 10 points. Really? He just torched one of the best defenses in the league (Baltimore :(...) last week and is now facing the Broncos (ok, so the they are decent against the pass...). They have't been really tested yet though and Denver doesn't have the secondary to stop Hasselbeck from picking them apart and even if his recent success turns out to be streaky, this week he is one of the best starts at the QB position.
PREDICTION: 19 points

Chris Johnson: It might not be fair to put a guy that went first in a lot of leagues on my STUDS list since most would assume he should be a stud every week... However, all of us Johnson owners know all too well that he has underachieved BIG TIME so far. Here's why I think Johnson snaps out of his funk this week; the Broncos rank 28th against the run while ranking 9th against the pass. This tells me that the Titans will lean on the run game instead of looking for their receivers to hit the home run. Johnson was on my DUDS list last week and he proved me right but this guy cares too much about what people think not to put forward a top notch effort this week.
PREDICTION: 18 points

Jason Witten: I'm normally not betting on any Cowboy's player (I have a history of getting burned by several of them) but this week, I love Witten and here is why... Tony Romo's ribs are banged up and everybody knows it. To avoid suffering another blow to his midsection, Romo will be throwing check downs, screen and quick slants like a Rookie in week 1. What does this mean for his veteran tight end? POINTS. Witten's value may be fading slightly in general, but this week he will perform more like the guy we all loved 3 or 4 years ago.
PREDICTION: 14 points

DUDS:

Chad Henne: Henne went off week 1 against the Pats whose defense has been suspect so far to say the least. Last week, he came back down to earth and this week I'm predicting he goes even lower. The Browns are 2nd in the league in passing defense and will be facing a Miami team that doesn't have much of a ground game. My guess is Miami falls behind early and Henne is forced to air it out. Maybe he'll get lucky, maybe it'll work out... but I'm not putting my eggs in that basket.
PREDICTION: 9 points

Payton Hillis: Hillis has strep throat and while his arms are super sized, there isn't much they can do to help him out of this one. I'm betting he starts but is much closer to DUD than STUD this week.
PREDICTION: 8 points

   There you go. I'm short on my DUDS this week because I'm out of time and have a wedding to be at soonish (plus the hotel is going to make me check out on time...bastards) so... yea. Enjoy what looks like a really fun week 3 of the NFL and fantasy and I'll be back later on tonight to do a wrap.

-Later

Ravens week 3 preview... Rebound time

   After an extremely sub-par effort against a Titans team that many thought would be an AFC doormat, the Ravens were probably just as confused as we were. On the heels a game that saw Baltimore completely dominate their fiercest competitor in the Steelers, it seemed like they came out last Sunday completely hungover. You know the feeling... Friday night rolls around, you go out and get a little crazy and when Saturday night comes, you're still dealing with the Friday hangover. The Ravens partied hard week 1 and were simply not ready to play 7 days later. Ray Rice was nonexistent in the rushing game (come to think of it, the rushing game was nonexistent) and Flacco failed to hit the 200 passing yards mark. At the same time, the Titans posted two 100 yard receiving efforts (ok, so Nate Washington only had 99...), their senior citizen QB tossed over 350 yards and the second string RB averaged over 4 yards per carry. Those numbers are just plain ugly. It wasn't all bad though... The Ravens did manage to render Chris Johnson next to useless (oh wait, so did the Jags... whoops). There really is no excuse for that level of performance out of a team that utterly man-handled last year's AFC Champions. The big hiccup in my eyes was the lack of forced turnovers. After getting the Steelers to cough it up 7 (1...2...3...4...7!) times, they lacked the intensity to force the same mistakes out of an offense whose RB "held out" for the entire preseason and whose QB was 30 second away from retiring. What do the Birds need to do this week to turn it around? It's simple, play Ravens' football. There are few teams in the league that can really lay claim to a "brand" of their own (Ravens, Steelers, Pats, Bears...) and the Ravens need to remember that when they step on the turf this Sunday. I think they will do this and do it well. Sam Bradford is a budding super star but he isn't there yet. The Rams running game is hurting and Bradford will probably have a heavier workload than the coaching staff would like. The Ravens need to send plenty of pressure his direction and spend less time worrying about getting burned by the run. If the Rams are going to win this game, it will be through the air and not on the ground. I have a feeling this will be the game plan and I look for at least 2-3 turnovers forced as a result of direct pressure on Bradford. As far as Baltimore's offense goes, run, run, run. They haven't been to the playoffs 3 straight years by passing for 400 yards a game. Pound Ray Rice in the inside and use Boldin where he is best (over the middle). If the Ravens stick to their formula and don't get side tracked by the current QB crazy world of the NFL than this team has a chance to get back on track quickly and stay there for a long time.
PREDICTION: Ravens 31 - Rams 17

NFL week 2 wrap...

   After a Sunday in which I accomplished nothing that required me to leave my couch, it's safe to say I had my fill of NFL action. I'm going to do my best to sum up my observations in a quick (quick might not be the right word) wrap up of week 2.


   FANTASY: (listed below are my STUDS and DUDS for week 2 with my prediction listed first followed by their actual point total as scored by ESPN standard league scoring)

Matthew Stafford (25/25): Safe to say I nailed this one (being right rocks). I started Matt over Rivers in one of my leagues and the gamble paid off. With the Lions out to their best start since the infamous John Kitna prediction, Stafford looks to have a solid upside from here on out. If he is still available in your league, snatch this guy up!

Rashard Mendenhall (19/13): Ok, so he didn't have a HUGE week... He still bounced back from complete debacle against my Birds in week 1. Mendenhall isn't a "no matter what" type of back. If the Steelers are playing well, he's going to be right there with them. If they have an off week, his numbers will suck. This guy isn't a top tier back (ADP, Chris Johnson...) so play the match ups and you will like the results.

Lee Evens (16/4): Simply put, I missed this one. Not only did the Ravens struggle against what most thought would be a cupcake match up, Evens' ankle is still giving him problems. I'm not writing this guy off yet but I'm going to temper my expectations until the ankle is better. Maybe Evens will be back on this list later on this season but, for the next few weeks, I'd say your better off looking elsewhere.

Miles Austin (17/32): As predicted, Austin guzzled up the targets like a homeless guy in a soup kitchen. He surpassed my expectations but it came at a price as he injured his hamstring late in the game. The Cowboys are saying he is out until October 16th. Only time will tell if it takes that long or maybe longer but at least Austin's owners can bask in the glory that was his week 2 performance for the next few days without feeling too bad about him being out.

Steelers' Defense (12/13): The Steelers bounced back from their week 1 loss as expected, with a complete beat down of the Seahawks. It's safe to say these guys are back on track but not out of the woods yet. Until they prove they can keep a good football team out of the endzone, you would be wise to proceed with caution.

Cam Newton/Steve Smith (12/26 - 6/13): Could I have been more wrong? Well yes, I could have, but not by much. This dynamic duo torched one of the best defensive units in the league and is slowly turning this skeptic into a believer. I don't know if you can expect these kind of numbers later in the year as the rest of the league slowly catches on to their game plan but, for now, Cam Newton and Steve Smith look like solid fantasy plays going forward. I'm going to wait one more week before I give Cam a starting gig but if he goes off again, I'll be buying in quicker than Wall Street when Google went public.

Chris Johnson (9/6): See, I told you! I know you thought I was just bashing the guy because he was playing my team but no... I was right (sorry, I had to get that out there). Chris struggled once again to live up to his fantasy hype. As a Johnson owner, I refuse to hit the panic button yet (although the backup had more success than he did). Johnson is a gamer and I think he will start to turn the corner in week 3 (he might even make my STUDS list...) so don't go trading him just yet. Another bad week and I might be playing a different tune.

Arian Foster (7/3): Did you read what what I wrote above about Johnson? Well I feel the exact opposite about Foster. This guy had a killer year last year... This isn't last year and one good season never made a career. He's hurt again and there is no telling how long it will take to get him back to 100%. That being said, Foster owners should be looking to pick up Ben Tate this week. Tate has filled in nicely in the first 2 weeks and if they decide to sit Foster completely (which they WILL do) I expect Tate to be the starter and make the most of the opportunity.

Bears' Defense (2/1): The Bears were outgunned down in the Super Dome. Were you surprised? Because I wasn't. The Bears are talented on defense and I think they will come into their own as the long season matures. That being said, I will temper my expectations until I see on field results.

The Colts: They SUCK. Need more? They REALLY SUCK. But seriously, dump them and dump them quick.

   So there you go. All things considered, I think my picks were relatively spot on (with a couple miscues). Check back later this week for my Week 3 STUDS and DUDS... and maybe this time you'll actually listen to me.

   THE REAL GAMES: Since nobody has the time to read my thoughts on the entire schedule of games from Sunday, let's just hit the fun stuff. The Redskins improved to 2-0... It might not seem like a lot, but to a guy who lived in Redskins Nation for most of his life, I encourage you to think again. The Skins haven't looked this solid in a long time and the kicker for me is the fact that they battled back after being down late. The Redskins of the last decade would have called it quits at the half. These guys have heart and a coach that actually knows what the hell he is doing. I'm not going to pick them for playoffs (yet) but the boys from DC are finally living up to the price of a beer at Fedex. On the same note, the Bills staged what could only be called one of the gutsiest comebacks in recent memory. Both teams fought hard but the Bills had an extra gear. I don't think there is any chance in hell that this teams comes out of that division in January but the long suffered fans in Buffalo have to be grinning at the thought of the Pats coming to town next week. If the Bills are the real deal, they will show us in week 3. The Lions? Yes, the Lions. They may have finally arrived but, like the Bills, they will be fighting it out in a division with two other top tier teams. Out of the three teams mentioned here so far, I have the best feeling about the Motor City crew. Stafford (see STUDS and DUDS) is a budding star and Javid Best isn't far behind him. This team is going to play shootout style football and dare teams to keep up. It looks like hockey season might not be starting quite so early in Detroit this year.

   As for everybody else, there weren't too many WOW moments. The Ravens looked sloppy in their loss to the Titans but I'm going to blame this on a week 1 party hangover. We've all had them. You go hard on Friday night and the next thing you know, it's Saturday night and you're head is still killing you. This loss will serve to motivate the Ravens going forward and I'd much rather eat the apple now than 3 or 4 weeks down the road. The Steelers are the Steelers. Did you really think what you saw week 1 was an image of what was to come? The Patriots (or should I say, the Tom Bradys) are doing what they have been doing for the last decade, scoring points. This team is an offensive machine and it will take a team equally as talented on defense to trip them up. Somebody needs to figure out how to stop them from scoring (if it's possible) because NOBODY is going to outscore these guys in a purely offensive game. The Chiefs stink... and as if they didn't have enough problems, Jamaal Charles is done for the year. This team could be the worst riches to rags story of the last decade after hosting a playoff game last season. The Eagles and Falcons played an entertaining prime time game Sunday night but I can't help but feel like I didn't learn very much about either team. Sure, the Eagles lost and Vick got knocked around (that didn't take long) but both teams battled hard and stayed in the game. It's going to take a few more weeks before we can really judge these teams fairly. One interesting storyline could be a renewed Eagles-Redskins rivalry. If the Skins can keep up the level of play they have displayed in the first 2 weeks, Dallas may take a back seat in the division race. Go ahead and mark week 6 on your calendar now because that first meeting of these two teams could prove to be pivotal later this season.

   If I didn't mention your team or your game, it's probably because I didn't see anything worth noting. There are a ton of teams that have a lot yet to prove. There are a ton of teams that are living up to the expectations and those falling quickly to the bottom of the pile... But then again, I just described any given week 2 in the roller coaster ride that is a National Football League season.

-Cheers

The weekend that was...

   After spending most of the weekend glued to my TV overdosing on football games to a level that would put Charlie Sheen to shame, I'd like to take a few moments to sum up exactly what I saw.

   Let's start will the college kids. I correctly picked both Clemson and Oklahoma to win (I also picked MD to win... at least they made it close right?). Those two games were probably tops on the watch list for the weekend. Clemson looked solid and now have a lot of us looking forward to an October 1st showdown with Virginia Tech (VT took care of business as well) in Lane Stadium. This could be a very likely ACC Championship preview. Florida put up a fight but was clearly outmatched by the country's number one team and I think the big test (bigger than this weekend's game) for the Noles will be how they handle next week. Has their bubble been completely popped or will they use the loss as motivation to finally make it back to a BCS game. The Hokies looked questionable at times during their win over the lowly Arkansas State Red Wolves (what the hell's a red wolf?) and Logan Thomas made several throws that left me chanting for Sean Glennon (oh wait, nvm). In fairness, he's a rookie and if he is going to have growing pains, better now than in October and November. There was improvement over the Hokies poor showing in Greenville but not enough to leave me feeling warm and fuzzy. Let's hope they look closer to mid season form in next week's tilt with Marshall because after that, the Tigers come calling in what I think could be the Hokie's toughest test of the year.

   Before I move on to the NFL, I have to touch on the ACC expansion that took place over the weekend. I can't help but like the idea of growing the ACC (even if only to protect its future) to 14 or even 16 teams. The addition of Pittsburgh and Syracuse are a big step in the right direction. The ACC has to remember (and I think they did) that their bread and butter is basketball. Sadly the current mad dash of conference realignment may ultimately strengthen football schedules at the cost of the basketball program. Thankfully this will not be the case for the ACC. While Pitt brings a solid football tradition and a whole new state audience into the ACC family, Syracuse is much more of a one horse school (can you say Duke # 2?). The Orange may not serve as much help in beefing up the football resume but who can argue with Duke vs. Pitt and Syracuse vs. UNC twice a year? Not this guy. I do think the ACC will pursue two more teams to bring the final tally up to 16 for next season. This is where it gets fun. If I had to make a shopping list right now, West Virginia would be at the top of it, followed closely by Rutgers. Looking outside of the Big East (those poor bastards won't have a league left next year) I shy away from rumors of Texas, mostly because the shadow that Texas brings (the same shadow that has destroyed the Big 12) could have a very negative affect on the close knit fabric of the ACC. On top of that, I'm old fashioned and, last time I checked, Texas was no where near the Atlantic Coast. I'd love to see the ACC continue to make moves to strengthen it's football profile but they must take care not to forget who they are. Texas is the sexy actress... sure you want them to move in next door so you can finally use that telescope sitting in you attic but, at the end of the day, she's going to have a lot of loud and annoying parties that you will never be invited to. What I'm saying is Texas only cares about Texas. They don't care who they play or where they play as long as they are the star of the show. The ACC should take a good look at what is happening in the Big 12 right. Do we really want to turn our conference into the Longhorn Traveling Circus? The answer is a resounding NO. The ACC is itching for nation football attention but Texas is not the right way to get it.

Check back tomorrow for my NFL week 2 breakdowns. What I got right, what I got wrong and what I missed all together. There is a ton to talk about and I'm sure there will be even more by the end of the night. Time to get back to the Eagles-Falcons game (otherwise known as the Michael Vick Road Show).

Hokie, Hokie, Hokie High...

Ladies and gentlemen it's a crisp September Saturday and that means it's a Hokie game day. Today's match up is another softy one with Arkansas State (1-1) traveling to Lane Stadium. Before we write this game off, perhaps we (and the Hokies team) would be wise to recall the losses to such lowly teams early on in the season that have seemed to plague the Hokies like interns in Bill Clinton's office. After a scary tilt last week with the Conference USA East Carolina Pirates, Virginia Tech (2-0) will be looking to come out swinging so as to avoid any question of victory by halftime. Arkansas State plays in arguably the worst conference in the Bowl Subdivision (FBS), the Sunbelt Conference, and the Hokies showed only minor effort in beating the only other Sunbelt school they have played in the last 5 years (Western Kentucky). I'm sure Frank Beamer had a thing or two to say to the team this past week after a so-so showing in Greenville. look for an aerial attack early with freshman quarterback Logan Thomas serving as the favorite weapon until the lead is established. If any of you lucky boys and girls are heading out to the game, be sure to shoot me some comments and let me know what you saw in person. Most of the other games today are pedestrian but I will go ahead and make a fool of myself by picking the winners in the 5 best games of the day. If you have other ideas, be sure to let me know. Now go grab a beer, fire up the grill and get ready to soak in some much needed Saturday Football. Go Hokies!

SATURDAY SURE THINGS:

Maryland beats West Virginia: 27-17
Virginia Tech over Arkansas State: 41-13
Oklahoma beats Florida State: 35-31
Clemson clips Auburn: 24-21
Michigan State takes Notre Dame: 37-24

Fantasy Week 2: Studs and Duds

Ok, this is my 3rd year dealing with the addiction that is Fantasy Football. I'm going to be posting 5 Studs and 5 Duds every week. I don't claim to be an expert but I've been burned enough times to know a thing or two about planning out a starting roster so without anymore dialog, here are my 5 Studs and Duds for week 2... (All predictions are for ESPN standard league scoring)

STUDS:
   1. Matthew Stafford: This guy put up solid week one numbers against a not-that-bad Tampa Bay D. While I'm not going to give him every week starter status quite yet, he is a solid start this week against a Chiefs D that got burned by the Bills (yes... the Bills) worse than the Scare Crow in Oz. I'm predicting Stafford puts up similar if not better numbers this week and could be a goldmine for spot starts and buy-week bailouts this season.
PREDICTION: 25 points

   2. Rashard Mendenhall: After a forgettable week one against my Ravens, look for the Steelers to bounce back BIG against the lowly Seahawks. The Steelers never got the ball moving on the ground and you can bet that practice this week has been centered around the ground game. Mendenhall only carried 12 times last week but that was mostly due to 7 Steeler turnovers. He's going to carry early and often and when the Steelers get a big lead (and they will) they will look to Mendenhall to close the door.
PREDICTION: 19 points

   3. Lee Evens: After sitting out week one and getting a good look at how potent the Baltimore offense can be, I expect Evens to be as hungry as ever to hit the field and make a big play. The Titans secondary is full of holes (don't be fooled by the fact they gave up only 16 point week 1... they were facing a backup QB) and Flacco's goal will be to make those holes bigger. Look for Flacco to target Evens for a big play early in the game to welcome his newest weapon to the team.
PREDICTION: 16 points

   4. Miles Austin: I can sum this up with two words... Dez Bryant. It doesn't look like he will play and so you can bet that Austin's targets are going to go up, waaaay up. The 49ers provide an interesting match up in the secondary and that could mean Austin will get more double teams but I'm betting the increased targets out weigh the increased coverage.
PREDICTION: 17 points

   5. Steelers Defense: I'm going set my extreme hatred for the Steelers aside here and tell it like it is. They are NOT THAT BAD... After a complete mess of a game against my Ravens, look for the Steelers D to be charged and ready to manhandle the over matched Seahawks this week. No way a squad with as much talent as the Steel Boys come out flat again (or Mike Tomlin might lose his mind). If you drafted them and were turned off by last week, fear not... A bounce back (forcing at least 2 turnovers) is in their future.
PREDICTION: 12 points

DUDS:
   Cam Newton/Steve Smith: I know both of these guys had monster week 1's... Don't buy in just yet ladies and gentlemen. With the Packers coming to town, look for the numbers to be cut in half, at least. Cam doesn't have the experience to put up numbers against a defense with this much skill and, as Cam goes, so goes Steve. While I like the possibility of this combo coming into their own as the season progresses (and in spot match ups along the way) sell them this week. Don't run out and pick up Newton on wires and if you already have Smith, plan to use him as a flex or 3rd WR depending on the match up.
PREDICTION: 12/6 points

   Chris Johnson: Before you wave your red flag, I currently own Johnson in one of my leagues (yes, I drafted him number 1 overall) so this is not my Ravens bias seeping through. Johnson was pedestrian in week 1 and his preseason holdout is certainly to blame. He will come back strong but the stout Ravens D is not the squad to do it against. If you have another back to start, do it. The Titans have little pass attack and you can bet most of the Ravens prep this week has been centered on stopping Johnson.
PREDICTION: 9 points

   Arian Foster: He went in the first 4 or 5 picks in most leagues and didn't see the field in week 1. That being said, I think he WILL PLAY this week but I am seriously lowering my expectations. While Miami may not possess a stellar defense (517 for Brady!) they are not THAT bad. Ben Tate will get carries and Foster will be worked into the offense slowly. Let's be real, it's week 2... If you were the Texans, would you be willing to risk the rest of the season on 1 game against a so-so opponent? The answer is no.
PREDICTION: 7 points

The Bears Defense: I may regret this pick, but the Bears are walking into a road game against a team that had 10 days to prepare while stewing over an opening day loss on national TV. The Saints are going to be fired up and Brees will put up BIG numbers (he went off last week in a loss!). I like the Bears this year to win a wild card in the NFC, but we all know the season is not won or lost in week 2 and with that said, the Bears are going down harder than Mike Tyson this week.
PREDICTION: 2 points

The Colts: The Colts are a mess. They have no passing game and, even WITH Manning at the helm, the run game was suspect. I'm not going to mince words here. If you own Colts players... SELL SELL SELL.
PREDICTION: I don't see more than 10 points for any player on the team

   There you go, your fantasy football Studs and Duds for week 2. Be sure to come back and ridicule me for all the picks I messed up and to check out the Studs and Duds for week 3!

We bleed Orange... and we're bleeding out.

   Flash back 14 years... The Orioles are set to make a run to their second consecutive American League Championship Series. Last year was a huge disappointment. We had a team that could have won it all but a young Y%$#ee fan (who will remain unnamed) ripped our hearts out. Now we are poised to make another run and, this time, we're going all the way... Now back to reality. Most of us know how that story ended; Armando Benitez blew a save and the Indians came back and won that series on their way to a defeat at the hands of the fledgling Florida Marlins. 14 losing seasons later the Oriole Faithful are wondering what the hell happened. What caused a once storied franchise (3 World Championships... 4 20 game winners in a season... Cal's Iron Man streak) to suddenly fall into oblivion? Since 2001 the Orioles home attendance numbers have fallen 44%, they haven't even flirted with a winning season since '97 and there hasn't been true staff ace since Mike Mussina turned Benedict Arnold and headed north up I95. As depressing as all this seems, I think the story of the Orioles' decline can be summed up with 5 simple points... So here it goes.

1. The resurgence of the Red Sox and Ya#$%ees... In the 80's and early 90's, these 2 teams were slumping. Boston was still cursed and the Ya$#%ees were hit or miss. Toronto was the powerhouse in the early 90's winning 2 World Championships. Today, Boston has broken the curse and the Ya#$%ees are sadly back to buying all-star teams and winning games. Add to that Tampa Bay's success of the past few years and what used to be a fair fight for the division is now not even a contest. Most Orioles fans (And I think the Orioles front office) see the daunting American League East as unwinable.

2. The ownership... While Peter Angelos may have succeeded in putting a winning product on the field and in building arguably the best ball park in the majors, he has since failed as an owner and failed miserably. Angelos' story is one of failed attempts at buying a winning team (Albert Belle, Sammy Sosa, Rafael Palmero round 2, and countless has-been starting pitchers) and total disregard for a fan base that was once one of the best and most loyal in the sport (there was no NFL team and no team in DC). Under Angelos, the Orioles have slowly sank to the bottom of the pay role list and, at the same time, the bottom of the league standings. If Angelos was as fixated on winning as he was with keeping a team out of DC (that worked out well) then maybe the Orange Faithful would not be dwindling faster than ANY OTHER PRO FRANCHISE besides the Indians (and even the Indians managed to excite some fans this year) . Peter needs to go (welcome home Cal Ripken) and until he does, the Orioles will continue to put a half-ass product on the field and the fans will continue to stay home and wait for football season.

3. Bad Drafting... 14 years of losing means 14 years of high draft picks. Look around. What have has the Orioles system produced? Sure, there's Nick and Brian, but beyond them there has been a complete lack of production from the farm system. Pitcher after pitcher has been drafted only to be hurried into the league to boost ticket sales and fail shortly after. To add to the pain, how many picks have we blown on past-their-prime "veterans" who show up 2 or 3 years too late? Don't get me wrong, I think there are several good prospects (Jake Arrieta anybody?) but after 14 long seasons of drafting high, where are the perennial all-stars? Where is the 20 game winner? Where is the end to the sub-par prospect performance? There needs to be serious changes in who and how we draft and until then, there will be little improvement to the farm system.

4. Culture of losing... After 14 years of living in the basement of the American League, the Orioles have succeeded at one thing... Building a culture of losing. The fans expect it, the ownership expects it, hell, the players expect it. There was a spark last year when Buck showed up. The team heated up and finished the last few months of the season with a winning record. The excitement began to build and the start of this seasoned dawned more promising than any in recent memory. It's now September and the team is in last. What's the answer? They don't believe they CAN win. I'm sure I can find a way to blame Peter for this (Although hiring Buck was actually a good move) but I feel like the culture of losing has taken on its own life and the Orioles are the mercy of anybody that can overcome it.

5. Cal is MIA... Cal Ripken Jr. is arguably the most famous and beloved athlete in Baltimore's history (with all due respect to Mr. Unitas). When Cal retired, he took what was left of the Orioles pride with him. I'm not blaming Cal for the O's woes, I'm simply saying when we had Cal, we had a leader, a winner. Nobody has been able to fill those shoes. The fans and players need that leadership figure back on the team, whether he is sitting in the dugout with a lineup card, the front office with Peter's money, or the owner's box with a beer and a pile of crabs. WE NEED CAL BACK. Until he is back on the team is some form, the entire organization will be living off of the ever fading memories of Cal's lap around the warning track in 1995.

   So there you go, 5 reasons the Orioles are stuck in decline. I'm sure I missed parts, but the basic picture is there. The fans are pissed and if something isn't done quickly, Baltimore will once again be a one team town... and that team won't be playing baseball.

Welcome to the Birdhouse

   For a while now I've been contemplating doing this, and by this, I mean spewing my rambling thoughts onto the world wide web for most to ignore. Whatever the motivating factor for me finally taking plunge (I think it may just be pure boredom) I'm here now and I may quickly realize that all the stuff I thought I had to say makes no sense to me or anybody else once it leaves my brain, travels through the keyboard and winds up on this screen. That being said, I won't let that stop me from at least giving it a shot (if not only as a way to waste 30 minutes on a Friday morning).

   My focus will be on sports and as we all know, sports bleeds into just about everything else so if I get carried away, I hope you will accept this apology in advance. If you know me personally at all, you know I am fanatic about 4 teams...

1. The Baltimore Orioles. I've loved them since I knew what baseball was and some of my very favorite memories are of summer nights on the Eastern Shore of Maryland soaking in the games via AM radio with the attention span closer to that of a brain surgeon than a grade schooler. The last 14 years have been rough on me (14 years since the O's last saw a playoff berth) but I love that crappy team, if not only for the memories and heroes they gave me as a day dreaming little leaguer. I still have hope for them, as all good fans should, and I will surely address their woes in future postings.

2. The Washington Capitals. My relationship with the Capitals has now spanned over a decade. It began with a plastic puck and a wooden hockey stick about 3 blocks from my home on the Shore. I quickly became enamored with the game of hockey and shortly after, I adopted the closest thing to a home town team that I could find. 12 Years ago the Caps were not the glamorous powerhouse of goal scorers and nightly sellouts that they have grown into over the last 4 seasons. Sure, there were fans, and there were playoff runs, but DC was never a hockey town and it showed. With the emergence of the Capitals as one of the premier powers in the NHL, hockey has taken DC by storm and I couldn't be happier.

3. The Virginia Tech Hokies. I understand this may be more of a niche since I'm sure most of you that take the time to read this aren't Hokie fans, but I will do my best to write not only about VT but about College Football and Basketball in general as it relates to my alma mater. I had the pleasure of attending that great school tucked away in a little town called Blacksburg for 4 years. During those 4 years I attended every home football game and what started as just "the thing to do" turned into something much more integral to my life as a sports fan. Some of you will know what I'm talking about, that feeling of being more than just a fan, of being a real part of whatever is happening down on the field or court. This feeling of membership is much harder to attain as a fan of a pro team. I guess it's just more of an exclusive club, and if you are lucky enough to be in it, you know exactly what I'm talking about.

4. The Baltimore Ravens. My first memories of the Ravens came via my great aunts and uncles in Baltimore proper. I can remember their horror stories of the Colts sneaking out of town and the longing to have a team to root for again. In 1996, they got their team. I'd be lying If I said I paid much attention to those early years. I was a baseball kid and baseball is all that mattered. On January 29th, 2001 I woke up to a headline hailing the Ravens as Superbowl champs. Little did I know that those Ravens had just won the only title that I have seen so far. Fast forward a few years and I have grown into a dedicated fan of the purple and black and if when they bring home number 2, let's just say I'll know about it before the morning paper.

   So there you go, my sporting life boiled down to a few lines. While these 4 teams will receive a majority of my attention, I'm sure I will be delving into fantasy football at times (and addiction that there is no cure for) as well as general sports and life happenings. Who really knows where this will go or if anybody will take the time to go with me but, whatever the case, I'll enjoy pretending like I know what I'm talking about :)