If week 3 is as predictable as week 2 was, the points are going to rack up quicker than dollar signs on a gas pump. The main trend we are seeing is a TON of passing. Receivers have been cleaning up so far this year. At some point, you need to consider starting 3 receivers instead of the more traditional 3 running back setup. I don't think I will be going that way this week but if you have a solid number 3 WR, I would recommend giving it a shot. Some other stuff to take note of for this week... There are some key divisional match ups and that normally means a good game. The stars will come to play so if you have offensive players in one of these games, I would suggest starting them. QB's have been GOING OFF so far. If you are still sitting on a mediocre QB, it's time to start making moves (trade or waivers) to pick up a guy that's going to be in the 20 point range week in and week out. Take a look at your league's waiver wire and if there is nobody left to pickup, start going after somebody's backup. It may take a little sacrifice to get a Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton, Ryan Fitzpatrick or even Rex Grossman at this point but these guys could be a solid improvement over some of the higher drafted starters that aren't quite living up to the hype. Ok, now that you have some stuff to think about before setting those starting rosters for Sunday, here are this weeks STUDS and DUDS.
STUDS:
Thomas Jones: Ok, this is probably my biggest roll of the dice this week. Thomas Jones has been "too old" ever since the Jets decided to let him go 3 years ago. What has Jones done every year since? Only become a week in and week out factor (even last year playing behind Jamaal Charles, Jones managed to have a fantasy impact) and with Charles done for the year, I'm setting my sights on Jones to be the go-to RB for the struggling Chiefs. Just to spread a little icing on the cake, the Chargers rank 26th against the run and are giving up over 125 yards per game so far. I'm looking for Jones to get 20 or so carries between the tackles and probably any goal line opportunities (if the Chiefs can get the ball to the goal line that is...) and I expect him to take advantage of them.
PREDICTION: 13 points
Ben Tate: Tate began the year as a little known 3rd string RB and has since been tossed into the starting job. Here's a news flash: The dude can PLAY. A lot of Foster owners ran out and grabbed Tate as soon as they realized their first overall draft pick's hammy is doing about as well as Obama's approval rating. I think Tate puts up even better numbers this week and will be a solid fantasy starter as long as Foster stays hurt.
PREDICTION: 16 points
Matt Hasselbeck: The guys and girls at ESPN are projecting this guy at 10 points. Really? He just torched one of the best defenses in the league (Baltimore :(...) last week and is now facing the Broncos (ok, so the they are decent against the pass...). They have't been really tested yet though and Denver doesn't have the secondary to stop Hasselbeck from picking them apart and even if his recent success turns out to be streaky, this week he is one of the best starts at the QB position.
PREDICTION: 19 points
Chris Johnson: It might not be fair to put a guy that went first in a lot of leagues on my STUDS list since most would assume he should be a stud every week... However, all of us Johnson owners know all too well that he has underachieved BIG TIME so far. Here's why I think Johnson snaps out of his funk this week; the Broncos rank 28th against the run while ranking 9th against the pass. This tells me that the Titans will lean on the run game instead of looking for their receivers to hit the home run. Johnson was on my DUDS list last week and he proved me right but this guy cares too much about what people think not to put forward a top notch effort this week.
PREDICTION: 18 points
Jason Witten: I'm normally not betting on any Cowboy's player (I have a history of getting burned by several of them) but this week, I love Witten and here is why... Tony Romo's ribs are banged up and everybody knows it. To avoid suffering another blow to his midsection, Romo will be throwing check downs, screen and quick slants like a Rookie in week 1. What does this mean for his veteran tight end? POINTS. Witten's value may be fading slightly in general, but this week he will perform more like the guy we all loved 3 or 4 years ago.
PREDICTION: 14 points
DUDS:
Chad Henne: Henne went off week 1 against the Pats whose defense has been suspect so far to say the least. Last week, he came back down to earth and this week I'm predicting he goes even lower. The Browns are 2nd in the league in passing defense and will be facing a Miami team that doesn't have much of a ground game. My guess is Miami falls behind early and Henne is forced to air it out. Maybe he'll get lucky, maybe it'll work out... but I'm not putting my eggs in that basket.
PREDICTION: 9 points
Payton Hillis: Hillis has strep throat and while his arms are super sized, there isn't much they can do to help him out of this one. I'm betting he starts but is much closer to DUD than STUD this week.
PREDICTION: 8 points
There you go. I'm short on my DUDS this week because I'm out of time and have a wedding to be at soonish (plus the hotel is going to make me check out on time...bastards) so... yea. Enjoy what looks like a really fun week 3 of the NFL and fantasy and I'll be back later on tonight to do a wrap.
-Later
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